[SMM Weekly Nickel Ore Market Review] Are nickel ore prices in the Philippines declining? Are the prices of Indonesia's local saprolite ore falling again?

Philippine nickel ore prices decline; amid smelter losses, downstream acceptance of high-priced nickel ore is limited

This week, Philippine medium-grade nickel ore prices declined. The CIF price of Philippine red laterite nickel ore (NI1.3%) shipped to China was $45-47/wmt, and the FOB price was $36-38/wmt; the CIF price of NI1.5% was $58-61/wmt, and the FOB price was $51-53/wmt. In terms of supply and demand, on the supply side, rainfall in the main producing areas of southern Philippines decreased slightly compared to last week, with rainfall in the southern region of Palawan remaining unchanged from last week and almost no rainfall in the area east of Davao. The main rainfall was concentrated in the Zambales region. Overall, precipitation had no significant impact on shipments, and nickel ore supply increased. As of July 4, China's nickel ore port inventory increased to 6.63 million wmt. Ships that had been shipped earlier arrived at ports successively, leading to an increase in inventory. On the demand side, the decline in NPI prices continued this week. Domestic NPI smelters still suffered severe losses, raw material purchase sentiment was dampened, and the support for nickel ore prices from the demand side continued to weaken. Looking ahead, under the influence of multiple factors such as the decline in Indonesia's local nickel ore prices this week, continued losses of downstream smelters, limited willingness to purchase high-priced nickel ore, and an increase in port inventory, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to continue to weaken.

Indonesia's benchmark price for the first half of July falls, and saprolite ore prices follow a downward trend

Nickel ore prices in Indonesia fell again this week. In terms of premiums, the mainstream premium for Indonesia's local red laterite nickel ore remained at $24-26/wmt this week. In terms of benchmark prices, the HMA price for the first half of July fell slightly to 14,943 yuan/mt, down 1.83% MoM from the previous period. The SMM Indonesia's local red laterite nickel ore 1.6% delivery-to-factory price was $50.4-54.4/wmt, down $0.5 WoW, with a decline of 0.9%. In terms of limonite ore prices, the SMM Indonesia's local red laterite nickel ore 1.3% delivery-to-factory price remained stable at $26-28/wmt, unchanged from last week.

For saprolite ore, on the supply side, affected by continuous precipitation, mining and transportation operations in the main nickel ore producing areas of Sulawesi and Halmahera Islands in Indonesia were still disrupted this week. Nevertheless, progress has been made in the approval of some new quotas and quota revisions for RKAB. It is expected that the approval of RKAB will continue to advance in July and August. Therefore, influenced by this factor, nickel ore supply may further increase in the future. On the demand side, most NPI smelters in Indonesia continue to struggle with high nickel ore prices, with some smelting enterprises still suffering losses and even some smelters cutting production, leading to a decrease in purchase demand. Overall, despite the continued tightness in Indonesia's nickel ore supply due to the impact of the rainy season, the downward pressure exerted by nickel iron smelters has made it difficult to maintain prices at a high level. Looking ahead, the prices of saprolite ore will still be in the doldrums.

Regarding limonite ore, from the supply side, the current supply of limonite ore in Su remains relatively stable, meeting the current market demand. In addition, the approval of RKAB will make significant progress within the next few months, which may drive a further increase in supply. From the demand side, the production of MHP projects is normal, and the demand for limonite ore remains stable. In the long term, with the progress of potential approvals for supplementary RKAB quotas, it is expected that the prices of limonite ore may also be in the doldrums.